The arrival and spread of COVID-19 led to rapid changes to all aspects of our society not the least of which our health care system and our economy. For provincial governments tasked with implementing many of these changes, dealing with the considerable uncertainty is challenging.
The New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) and the Maritime SPOR SUPPORT Unit (MSSU) developed a series of Rapid Response Reports to provide provincial government decision-makers with information about the COVID-19 pandemic, its evolution, and the impact of different response strategies around the world.
Shortly after COVID-19 was first diagnosed in New Brunswick, the team began modelling how the pandemic might progress in the province. They developed an algorithm for projecting rates of infection, hospitalization, and mortality in the province based on the experience of similar regions. The first projections were provided to the New Brunswick Department of Health in a Rapid Response Report on March 31, 2020, followed by two updates on April 14, 2020 and April 27, 2020.